The Managerial Tipping Point: Navigating Change Without Chaos

Introduction

Managerial change in football is one of the most visible, and most disruptive, decisions a club can make. It can generate headlines, appease frustrated supporters, and deliver an immediate “new manager bounce.” But research shows the reality is more complex: short-term gains are often fleeting, and long-term risks can outweigh the benefits.

In an era where stability and structural clarity are increasingly linked to sustainable success, how should clubs navigate managerial change in football without sacrificing long-term progress?

What the research tells us about managerial change in football

The short-term bounce is real…but limited

Studies consistently find that new managers can bring a surge of points in the first 5–10 games. This is often attributed to renewed motivation, simplified tactics, or a psychological reset. Yet by three months, the effect typically dissipates, leaving clubs no better off than peers who kept faith with their coach (Lago-Peñas et al., 2011).

The long-term picture is more sobering

Evidence suggests that teams who sack their manager mid-season often underperform in the long run compared to those that hold steady (Sousa et al., 2023). Volatility increases, performance variance widens, and hidden costs emerge — from disrupted periodisation to higher injury rates in the weeks following a coaching change (Plumley et al., 2019 – Making Sense of the Sack Race).

Why clubs still pull the trigger

• Symbolism: a statement of intent to fans and stakeholders
• Crisis management: survival in relegation battles or qualification races
• Cultural reset: signalling higher standards or a new identity
• Mismatch: tactical, philosophical, or personality clashes with the wider organisation

---

Bayer Leverkusen and Erik ten Hag

In a rare move, Bayer Leverkusen parted ways with Erik ten Hag just two games into the Bundesliga season. While ruthless, the decision reflected a board unwilling to compromise on cultural fit and playing identity. By acting swiftly, they prioritised structural cohesion over short-term optics.

---

1. Pre-emptive clarity
   Define performance thresholds and red lines before the season begins. Align board, sporting director, and ownership on what constitutes a trigger point.
2. Diagnostic depth
   Analyse root causes — tactical, physical, cultural, or recruitment-related — before acting.
3. Continuity where possible
   Retain elements of the coaching staff or operational processes to limit disruption.
4. Fit over reputation
   Appoint based on cultural and structural fit, not just name value.
5. Onboarding and integration
   Support the new manager with resources and ensure continuity in sports science, recruitment, and communication.
6. Monitor beyond results
   Track injury rates, physical metrics, and morale alongside league position.
7. Embed resilience
   Build long-term club identity — data systems, youth pathways, clear philosophy — to reduce overreliance on a head coach.

---

Managerial change in football will always be part of the sport’s fabric, a high-stakes gamble that clubs sometimes feel compelled to take. But research is clear: while new leadership can deliver an immediate spark, sustainable success depends on alignment, patience, and organisational resilience.

The best clubs don’t just change managers, they manage change.